20 players fitted to all 163 scored matches at once, refit after every game. Each player starts at their own sheet DUPR and the results move them from there; recent matches count more (a match 14 days older than the latest game counts half, the window that best predicted past games); win chances allow for real margins landing about 6 points from the spread. The earlier model, where everyone started at 3.25 and every match counted the same, is frozen as SMAD DUPR 1.0.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +1.9 · actual avg 4.9 pts
Missed by 3.0 pts on average (std dev 2.4) · 8 of 13 within 3 pts
Last game (Thu 10/1): predicted avg +0.5 · actual avg 4.2 pts
Missed by 3.7 pts on average (std dev 3.0) · 5 of 10 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Shyam B 4.47 +0.11 2-0
Vic M 4.12 +0.16 7-3
Thanh L 3.44 -0.13 4-6
Gene C 3.16 -0.04 5-4
John W2 3.01 -0.02 4-6
Kevin C 2.75 +0.02 2-2
Jerry S 2.10 -0.03 2-5
Post-game analysis 🎙️
📈 Vic M climbed +0.16 to 4.12 on a 7-3 night, and it was Vic M & Thanh L who flattened Jerry S & John W2 11-2. Show me the money!
📉 Thanh L slid -0.13 to 3.44 on a 4-6 night, yet he and Vic M won that 11-2 rout over Jerry S & John W2, so chin up. Tomorrow's another ballgame.
🎯 Favorites won 9 of 11 called, with 2 too close to call. The best call was Thanh L & Vic M, favored by 7.1, beating Jerry S & John W2 11-2. The widest miss was Gene C & Kevin C, underdogs by 2, beating John W2 & Thanh L 11-6.
🔥 Gene C & Kevin C beat John W2 & Thanh L 11-6 when the ratings had them 2 points short. It's a bold strategy, Cotton, let's see if it pays off for 'em.
⏱️ Gene C & Shyam B edged Thanh L & Vic M 12-10 in overtime, and Shyam B finished 2-0 at 4.47, up +0.11. Pull up a chair!
🤝 Jerry S & Shyam B teamed up for the first time and beat John W2 & Kevin C 11-7, then Jerry S & Vic M debuted with an 11-4 win over John W2 & Kevin C.
🏁 Gene C & Vic M closed the night beating John W2 & Thanh L 11-8, after John W2 & Thanh L had taken the 11-9 win over Gene C & Vic M just before.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +0.5 · actual avg 4.2 pts
Missed by 3.7 pts on average (std dev 3.0) · 5 of 10 within 3 pts
Last game (Tue 9/29): predicted avg +0.7 · actual avg 4.4 pts
Missed by 3.7 pts on average (std dev 2.0) · 5 of 15 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Thanh L 3.57 -0.06 6-4
Gene C 3.20 +0.05 5-5
John W2 3.03 +0.04 5-5
Vijay V 2.74 -0.01 4-6
Post-game analysis 🎙️
🎙️ Ten matches, four players, every combination tried twice over on a Thursday night where nobody got to sit down.
📈 Gene C rose +0.05 to 3.20 on a 5-5 night, capped by beating Thanh L & Vijay V 11-8 with John W2. Boom shakalaka!
📉 Thanh L slipped -0.06 to 3.57 despite leading the night at 6-4, including an 11-6 win over John W2 & Vijay V alongside Gene C. No harm, no foul.
😮 John W2 & Vijay V, three points short on paper, took down Gene C & Thanh L 11-9. I don't believe what I just saw!
🧹 Gene C & Vijay V handed John W2 & Thanh L the widest beating of the night, 11-3, and the Jell-O's jiggling.
🤝 Vijay V went 4-6 but kept finding the right side of the draw, teaming with Thanh L to edge Gene C & John W2 11-9. Keep swinging.
🎯 Favorites won 6 of 10 called, with spreads missing the scores by 3.7 points on average; the sharpest read was John W2 & Thanh L favored by 2.2 and winning by 2 over Gene C & Vijay V 11-9, the widest miss Gene C & Thanh L favored by 3.1 and winning by 8 over John W2 & Vijay V 11-3.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +0.7 · actual avg 4.4 pts
Missed by 3.7 pts on average (std dev 2.0) · 5 of 15 within 3 pts
Last game (Fri 9/25): predicted avg +0.8 · actual avg 4.2 pts
Missed by 3.5 pts on average (std dev 3.2) · 7 of 12 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Vic M 3.93 +0.00 6-4
Rich F 3.90 +0.10 4-3
Thanh L 3.63 -0.05 6-3
Ryan H 3.29 +0.00 4-3
Alex L 3.26 +0.18 4-5
Roger Y 3.15 +0.07 3-3
Gene C 3.15 -0.13 3-6
John W2 2.99 -0.22 2-7
Post-game analysis 🎙️
📈 Alex L climbed to 3.26, +0.18, on a 4-5 night that started with an 11-3 flattening of John W2 & Ryan H alongside Guest. Boom shakalaka!
📉 John W2 dipped -0.22 to 2.99 at 2-7, but he and Thanh L put away Gene C & Roger Y 11-5. Tomorrow's another ballgame.
🙃 Alex L & Roger Y were 3 points short on paper and beat John W2 & Vic M 11-8 anyway. It's a bold strategy, Cotton, let's see if it pays off for 'em.
⏱️ John W2 & Rich F and Roger Y & Vic M went to overtime, 12-10 to John W2 & Rich F, and Ryan H & Vic M needed overtime too, 12-10 over Alex L & Rich F. Pull up a chair!
🔁 Roger Y & Vic M got it back 11-8 over John W2 & Rich F, then Rich F & Vic M buried John W2 & Roger Y 11-3. Put it in the books.
🧠 Alex L and John W2 had partnered 2 times and never faced each other, John W2 and Roger Y had partnered 4 times and never faced each other, and after tonight the model can tell them apart.
🎯 Favorites won 8 of 11 called with 4 too close to call: the sharpest read was Rich F & Vic M, favored by 4.3, beating John W2 & Roger Y 11-3, while the widest miss was Alex L & Gene C, underdogs by 1.8, beating Ryan H & Thanh L 11-7.
🏃 Vic M played 10 of 17 and finished 6-4, closing the night with Thanh L 11-7 over Gene C & John W2. Somebody get an ice bath ready.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +0.8 · actual avg 4.2 pts
Missed by 3.5 pts on average (std dev 3.2) · 7 of 12 within 3 pts
Last game (Tue 9/22): predicted avg +0.0 · actual avg 4.1 pts
Missed by 4.2 pts on average (std dev 3.2) · 4 of 13 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Thanh L 3.68 +0.32 8-0
Gene C 3.28 +0.03 3-5
John W2 3.21 -0.23 3-5
Vijay V 2.82 +0.12 3-6
Kevin C 2.79 +0.32 5-3
Jerry S 2.09 -0.31 2-5
Post-game analysis 🎙️
📈 Thanh L went 8-0 and climbed +0.32 to 3.68, a perfect Friday night in every partnership he touched. Boom shakalaka!
📉 Jerry S dipped -0.31 to 2.09 on a 2-5 night, but he and Thanh L outlasted Kevin C & Vijay V 12-10 in overtime. Shake it off. The comeback starts now.
🔥 Thanh L & Vijay V, 2 points short on paper, ran down Gene C & John W2 11-5. I don't believe what I just saw!
🧹 Gene C & Kevin C turned a first-time pairing of Jerry S & John W2 into kindling, 11-3. Put it in the books.
🤝 Kevin C and Thanh L had partnered 4 times and never faced each other before tonight, so when Kevin C & Thanh L rolled past Jerry S & Vijay V 11-3, the model finally got to tell them apart — and Kevin C rose +0.32 to 2.79.
🏃 Vijay V played 9 of 12, more than anyone, and still found +0.12 to 2.82 on a 3-6 night. Somebody get an ice bath ready.
🎯 Favorites won 8 of 10 called, 2 too close to call; the sharpest read was John W2 & Thanh L over Gene C & Vijay V 11-9, while the widest miss was Gene C & Kevin C over Jerry S & John W2 11-3 from an even line.
💙 John W2 slid -0.23 to 3.21, yet closed strong beside Thanh L twice over Gene C & Vijay V, 11-7 and 11-9. Every slump ends. Think Blue!
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +1.0 · actual avg 4.1 pts
Missed by 3.2 pts on average (std dev 2.5) · 6 of 13 within 3 pts
Last game (Thu 9/17): predicted avg +0.6 · actual avg 4.4 pts
Missed by 5.0 pts on average (std dev 4.5) · 2 of 10 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Shyam B 4.51 -0.27 3-3
Dom C 4.37 new 6-1*
Vic M 4.00 +0.02 3-4
Rich F 3.83 +0.20 4-2
John W2 3.44 -0.11 2-5
Mark C 3.32 -0.02 2-4
Ryan H 3.28 -0.07 3-3
Gene C 3.25 -0.08 3-4
Post-game analysis 🎙️
🎙️ Thirteen matches on a Tuesday night, ten of them first-time partnerships, and a newcomer walking in and owning the place.
🆕 Dom C debuts at 4.37 after a 6-1 night, capped by rolling with Rich F past Gene C & Vic M 11-2. The game's in the refrigerator, the door's closed, the light's out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the Jell-O's jiggling!
📈 Rich F rose +0.20 to 3.83, and teaming with Vic M he beat Ryan H & Shyam B 11-6 as an underdog. Boom shakalaka!
📉 Shyam B dipped -0.27 to 4.51 on a level 3-3, though he and John W2 survived Gene C & Vic M 12-10 in overtime. Keep swinging.
🔥 Gene C & Vic M, flattened earlier in the night, turned around and took down Dom C & John W2 11-9 with the ratings calling them 2 points short. I don't believe what I just saw!
💪 Mark C & Ryan H, underdogs by 0.6, outlasted Gene C & John W2 12-10 in overtime. Pull up a chair!
🎯 Favorites won 3 of 6 graded, spreads missing by 3 points on average: the sharpest call was Gene C & Shyam B over John W2 & Vic M 11-8, the widest miss Mark C & Shyam B over John W2 & Ryan H 11-4.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +0.5 · actual avg 4.4 pts
Missed by 4.8 pts on average (std dev 4.1) · 3 of 10 within 3 pts
Last game (Tue 9/15): predicted avg -0.1 · actual avg 5.6 pts
Missed by 6.6 pts on average (std dev 6.2) · 3 of 12 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Rich F 3.63 +0.12 2-2*
John W2 3.55 -0.51 3-4
Thanh L 3.39 +0.19 5-3
Ryan H 3.35 -0.07 3-2
Gene C 3.33 +0.00 5-3
Vijay V 2.77 +0.05 2-6
Post-game analysis 🎙️
🎾 Ten matches on Thursday night, six first-time partnerships, and a scoreboard that kept flipping the script on everybody.
📈 Thanh L rose to 3.39, +0.19 on a 5-3 night, capped by teaming with Vijay V to stun Gene C & John W2 11-7 when the ratings had them 5 points short. Do you believe in miracles? YES!
📉 John W2 dipped -0.51 to 3.55 with a 3-4 ledger, though he and Gene C flattened Rich F & Vijay V 11-3 for the night's widest margin. Shake it off. The comeback starts now.
🔥 Gene C & John W2 got their answer late, outlasting Thanh L & Vijay V 13-11 in overtime after an 11-8 win over the same opponents earlier. It ain't over till it's over!
💪 Rich F climbed to 3.63, +0.12, and his new pairing with Ryan H buried John W2 & Thanh L 11-3 as underdogs by 1.1. Boom shakalaka!
🚀 Ryan H & Thanh L opened the night 11-9 over Rich F & Vijay V, then knocked off Gene C & John W2 11-9 despite being underdogs by 2.5, while Vijay V nudged up to 2.77, +0.05 on a long 2-6 shift.
🎯 Favorites won 5 of 10 called, with the sharpest read Ryan H & Thanh L over Rich F & Vijay V 11-9, favored by 1.3 and won by 2; the widest miss was Thanh L & Vijay V over Gene C & John W2 11-7, where the spread had them 4.8 the other way.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +0.3 · actual avg 5.6 pts
Missed by 5.8 pts on average (std dev 5.4) · 5 of 12 within 3 pts
Last game (Fri 9/11): predicted avg +0.2 · actual avg 5.7 pts
Missed by 5.5 pts on average (std dev 3.3) · 2 of 10 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Shyam B 4.77 +0.32 5-0
Milo M 4.63 new 4-2*
John W2 4.06 -0.43 1-4
Vic M 4.05 -0.22 1-5
Gene C 3.33 -0.12 2-3
Mark C 3.31 +0.64 5-0
Thanh L 3.20 -0.21 2-4
Gabe B 3.05 -0.06 4-1
Bill C 2.33 -0.16 0-5
Post-game analysis 🎙️
📈 Mark C rocketed +0.64 to 3.31 on a perfect 5-0 night, and with Shyam B he buried Gene C & Thanh L 11-2. Boom shakalaka!
📉 John W2 slipped -0.43 to 4.06 at 1-4, though he and Shyam B handled Gabe B & Vic M 11-3. Tomorrow's another ballgame.
🙌 Gene C & Mark C were seven points short on paper and beat John W2 & Thanh L 11-5 anyway. I don't believe what I just saw!
🆕 Milo M debuts at 4.63 and went 4-2, teaming with Gabe B to hang an 11-0 on John W2 & Vic M. The game's in the refrigerator, the door's closed, the light's out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the Jell-O's jiggling!
🔥 Gabe B & Milo M closed the night in overtime, outlasting Thanh L & Vic M 12-10. Pull up a chair!
🧠 Bill C and Shyam B had partnered 4 times and never faced each other before tonight, and Shyam B rose +0.32 to 4.77 at 5-0 — the model can finally tell them apart.
💪 Mark C & Thanh L edged Bill C & Milo M 11-9, and Bill C went 0-5 with a -0.16 nudge to 2.33 on a night of 12 first-time partnerships. Keep swinging.
🎯 Favorites won 3 of 6 called, with the best call Mark C & Thanh L over Bill C & Gene C 11-6, favored by 0.5 and winning by 5; the widest miss was Mark C & Shyam B beating Gene C & Thanh L 11-2 as 1-point favorites.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +0.2 · actual avg 5.7 pts
Missed by 5.5 pts on average (std dev 3.3) · 2 of 10 within 3 pts
Last game (Tue 9/8): predicted avg +4.1 · actual avg 6.2 pts
Missed by 3.3 pts on average (std dev 3.7) · 11 of 20 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Ryan H 3.55 -0.08 1-3
Gene C 3.45 +0.07 6-2
Gabe B 3.11 +0.01 4-4
Vijay V 2.89 -0.04 3-5
Kevin C 2.51 +0.07 2-2*
Jerry S 2.41 +0.06 4-4
Post-game analysis 🎙️
📈 Kevin C popped the night's biggest climb, +0.07 to 2.51, after he and Gene C stunned Jerry S & Ryan H 12-10 in overtime. Boom shakalaka!
📉 Ryan H dipped -0.08 to 3.55 on a 1-3 night, but he and Jerry S opened by handling Gabe B & Vijay V 11-6. Tomorrow's another ballgame.
🔥 Gene C & Jerry S, partners 5 times and never once opponents, finally met as rivals and then reunited to clip Kevin C & Ryan H 13-11 in overtime from 1 point short on paper. I don't believe what I just saw!
🧊 Gabe B & Vijay V answered with the night's cleanest sheet, an 11-0 over Gene C & Jerry S. The game's in the refrigerator, the door's closed, the light's out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the Jell-O's jiggling!
↩️ Gene C & Jerry S flipped the script right back, taking Gabe B & Vijay V 11-2 and then 11-5, which is how Gene C closed at 3.45, +0.07, on a 6-2 evening.
🤝 Four brand-new pairings hit the court, and Jerry S & Vijay V drew the short straw against Gabe B & Gene C 11-6, while Gabe B held level at 3.11, +0.01, in a 4-4 night. Welcome to the show, kid.
🎯 Favorites won 3 of 8 called, with 2 too close to call; the sharpest read was Gabe B & Gene C favored by 5 and winning by 5 over Jerry S & Vijay V 11-6, and the widest miss was Gabe B & Vijay V over Gene C & Jerry S 11-0, with spreads off the scores by 5.5 points on average.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +4.7 · actual avg 6.2 pts
Missed by 3.1 pts on average (std dev 3.7) · 9 of 20 within 3 pts
Last game (Fri 9/4): predicted avg +1.1 · actual avg 3.9 pts
Missed by 3.0 pts on average (std dev 3.0) · 5 of 10 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Shyam B 4.43 +0.12 5-1
Vic M 4.24 -0.14 7-2
David L 4.10 +0.09 5-1*
Gene C 3.38 -0.11 4-3
Roger Y 3.12 +0.10 4-5
Jerry F 3.05 new 3-5*
Alex L 3.05 +0.37 5-5
Mark C 2.70 new 3-4*
James J 2.68 new 0-6*
Bill C 2.51 new 3-3*
Stan L 2.25 +0.15 1-5
Post-game analysis 🎙️
📈 Alex L played 10 of 20 and climbed +0.37 to 3.05, closing the night by beating Gene C & Roger Y 11-9 with Vic M. Boom shakalaka!
📉 Vic M dipped -0.14 to 4.24 on a 7-2 night that included an 11-0 wipeout of Alex L & Stan L with David L. No harm, no foul.
🎉 Alex L & Roger Y were 3 points short on paper and still took down Stan L & Vic M 11-6. It's a bold strategy, Cotton, let's see if it pays off for 'em.
🆕 Four first ratings land tonight: Bill C at 2.51, James J at 2.68, Mark C at 2.70 and Jerry F at 3.05. Welcome to the show, kid.
🔥 Shyam B rose +0.12 to 4.43, going 5-1 and crushing Alex L & Roger Y 11-2 with Bill C. Show me the money!
🧱 David L & Vic M flattened James J & Jerry F 11-1, then Gene C & Mark C answered later by edging James J & Jerry F 11-8.
🎯 Favorites won 4 of 5 graded matches, spreads off by 4.7 points on average; best call was Alex L & Vic M over Gene C & Roger Y 11-9, favored by 2.3 and winning by 2, while the widest miss was Alex L & Vic M over Gene C & Roger Y 11-2.
💪 Stan L went 1-5 but still gained +0.15 to 2.25, and he and Alex L beat Bill C & Mark C 11-8. Keep swinging.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +1.1 · actual avg 3.9 pts
Missed by 3.0 pts on average (std dev 3.0) · 5 of 10 within 3 pts
Last game (Tue 9/1): predicted avg +1.9 · actual avg 6.3 pts
Missed by 4.4 pts on average (std dev 2.2) · 5 of 19 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Gene C 3.49 +0.09 4-3
Thanh L 3.41 +0.12 3-4
Gabe B 3.14 -0.25 5-4
Vijay V 2.93 -0.05 6-3
Kevin C 2.48 new 1-3*
Jerry S 2.29 -0.15 1-3*
Post-game analysis 🎙️
🏓 Friday night at SMAD, ten matches, and Gabe B & Vijay V were on court for 9 of 10 as a brand-new pairing. Somebody get an ice bath ready.
🔥 They opened by surviving overtime, edging Gene C & Jerry S 12-10, then did it again, same scoreline, 12-10, because why fix what isn't broken.
📈 Thanh L rose +0.12 to 3.41, closing the night with Gene C by beating Gabe B & Vijay V 11-3 and 11-5. Boom shakalaka!
📉 Gabe B dipped -0.25 to 3.14 despite a 5-4 night that included an 11-9 win with Vijay V over Kevin C & Thanh L. Shake it off. The comeback starts now.
💥 Gene C & Jerry S, two points short on paper, flipped the script on Gabe B & Vijay V 11-7. I don't believe what I just saw!
🌟 Kevin C arrives with a first rating of 2.48, and with Thanh L he knocked off Gene C & Jerry S 11-5. Welcome to the show, kid.
🎯 Favorites won 4 of 6 called, with the spreads missing scores by 3.7 points on average; the sharpest read had Gabe B & Vijay V favored by 2.2 and winning by 2 over Gene C & Jerry S 12-10, while the widest miss was Gene C & Thanh L favored by 1.3 and winning by 8 over Gabe B & Vijay V 11-3.
👏 Jerry S eased to 2.29 but walked off with an upset in his pocket, and Vijay V's 6-3 night kept the paddles humming. Keep swinging.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +3.2 · actual avg 6.3 pts
Missed by 3.1 pts on average (std dev 2.3) · 10 of 19 within 3 pts
Last game (Fri 8/28): predicted avg +2.8 · actual avg 5.0 pts
Missed by 5.1 pts on average (std dev 5.7) · 2 of 7 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
John W2 4.55 -0.04 5-4
Vic M 4.32 +0.19 8-1
Shyam B 4.29 new 4-2*
Ryan H 3.58 +0.07 4-3
Rich F 3.52 new 1-2*
Gene C 3.40 -0.15 2-7
Thanh L 3.29 new 5-5
Roger Y 2.99 +0.22 3-2
Alex L 2.63 new 5-5
Stan L 2.09 new 1-7*
Post-game analysis 🎙️
🏓 Nineteen matches, sixteen first-time partnerships, and five players walking out with their first rating ever — Tue 9/1 was a whole new ballgame at SMAD.
📈 Roger Y surged +0.22 to 2.99, flipping the script on Gene C & Ryan H 11-5 and again 11-7 with John W2. Booyah!
📉 Gene C dipped -0.15 to 3.40 on a 2-7 night, but he and Vic M stole the last word from Alex L & John W2 12-10 in overtime. Shake it off. The comeback starts now.
⚡ Vic M went 8-1 and climbed +0.19 to 4.32, and with Ryan H he hung an 11-0 on Alex L & Gene C. The game's in the refrigerator, the door's closed, the light's out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the Jell-O's jiggling!
🔥 Alex L & Vic M were given up for dead by a point and still beat Gene C & Ryan H 12-10 in overtime. It's a bold strategy, Cotton, let's see if it pays off for 'em.
🆕 First ratings all around: Shyam B at 4.29 after 4-2, Rich F at 3.52, Thanh L at 3.29 over a league-high 10 of 19 matches, Alex L at 2.63 and Stan L at 2.09. Welcome to the show, kid.
🎯 Favorites won 2 of 3 graded, the spreads missed by 5.9 points on average with a Brier of 0.23, and the widest miss was Gene C & Ryan H over John W2 & Roger Y 11-5 as underdogs by 1.3.
🍿 Rich F & Thanh L answering back on Alex L & Vic M 11-7, Stan L & Vic M edging Alex L & Thanh L 11-6 — on a night of brand-new pairings, everybody got a turn on both sides of the net.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +3.5 · actual avg 5.0 pts
Missed by 3.6 pts on average (std dev 4.1) · 3 of 7 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
John W2 4.59 new 7-0*
Gene C 3.55 -0.48 3-4
Ryan H 3.51 +0.01 2-5
Gabe B 3.29 new 2-5*
Post-game analysis 🎙️
🏆 John W2 went 7-0 on his first rating, landing at 4.59, and every partner he touched walked off a winner.
📈 Ryan H edged up +0.01 to 3.51, and his 11-7 win with John W2 over Gabe B & Gene C set the tone for the whole night. He shoots, he scores!
📉 Gene C slipped -0.48 to 3.55 on a 3-4 night, but he and John W2 survived Gabe B & Ryan H 12-10 in overtime. Tomorrow's another ballgame.
🔥 That 12-10 wasn't the last word from Gene C & John W2 either, who closed out Gabe B & Ryan H 11-8 and 11-6 to finish the sweep. Pull up a chair!
💥 John W2 & Ryan H put up the widest margin of the night, 11-2 over Gabe B & Gene C. The game's in the refrigerator, the door's closed, the light's out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the Jell-O's jiggling!
🤝 Gabe B debuted at 3.29 and finally found the winning side, teaming with John W2 to beat Gene C & Ryan H 11-5 and 11-5. Welcome to the show, kid.
🔄 Five first-time partnerships on one night — John W2 & Ryan H, Gabe B & Gene C, Gene C & John W2, Gabe B & Ryan H, Gabe B & John W2 — with Gabe B and Ryan H on both ends of each other's results.
📊 Predicted spread vs actual margin
Predicted avg +2.7 · actual avg 4.8 pts
Missed by 2.6 pts on average (std dev 2.6) · 7 of 9 within 3 pts
Player SDPR Move W-L
-----------------------
Vic M 4.21 new 3-3*
Gene C 4.03 new 5-1*
David L 3.98 new 2-1*
Ryan H 3.50 new 2-3*
Vijay V 3.07 new 2-3*
Roger Y 2.76 new 3-3*
Danny M 2.68 new 1-4*
Post-game analysis 🎙️
🎉 Opening night on the board: seven first ratings posted, led by Vic M at 4.21 and Gene C at 4.03, with David L landing at 3.98 after a 2-1 debut. Welcome to the show, kid.
🔥 Gene C went 5-1 on the evening, and it started with Gene C & Vic M dismantling David L & Vijay V 11-4 in their very first outing together.
⚡ Gene C & Roger Y were four points short on paper and beat Ryan H & Vic M 13-11 in overtime. I don't believe what I just saw!
💥 Ryan H & Vic M answered right back, taking Gene C & Roger Y 11-1 for the widest margin of the night. The game's in the refrigerator, the door's closed, the light's out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the Jell-O's jiggling!
🤝 Twelve first-time partnerships hit the court, including Danny M & David L, who made it look rehearsed in an 11-5 win over Roger Y & Vijay V.
🌱 Danny M closed at 2.68 with a 1-4 line, but he was in the mix all night, pushing Gene C & Ryan H to 11-9 beside Vic M. Keep swinging.
SMAD DUPR not computed: only 1 scored match(es) in the log by this game; 10 needed before a fit means anything
SMAD DUPR History
One point per game, every game fitted with the current model. Hover or tap a line for the player.
How the model is doing
Every game graded the way its post-game report grades it: the spreads the ratings gave before the game against the real scores, a first-timer's match set aside. 96 matches graded over 11 games.
How balanced are the matches?
Expected spreadActual winning margin
The average spread the ratings expected for the matches played (lower is fairer) against the average real winning margin. 62% of the last game's matches were expected within 2 points.
Picking the winner
That gameAll games so far
How often the ratings' favorite won; a match expected within half a point is not a call. Overall: 64% of called matches.
Calling the spread
That gameAll games so far
How far the real margin landed from the spread, in points; lower is better. Overall: 4.2 points.
The match graph
Players are dots; pairs who have met are lines. The ratings are solved on this graph.
SMAD DUPR2.104.47Matches played525101
size = matches playedcolor = SMAD DUPR, blue low to red highthickness = times metdashed = partnered only, never opposeddashed ring = removing them splits the poolfaded = archived: off the tables, still rating everyone they played
Best winning record together, at least 3 matches as partners.
Gene Chuang & Kevin Chang 3-0 (100%)
Thanh Lim & Victorio Monteil 4-1 (80%)
John Wang 2 & Thanh Lim 6-3 (67%)
Thanh Lim & Vijay Vishwanath 4-2 (67%)
John Wang 2 & Victorio Monteil 2-1 (67%)
En Fuego!
Best record in the last 7 days, at least 4 matches.
Victorio Monteil 13-7 (65%)
Thanh Lim 24-13 (65%)
Kevin Chang 7-5 (58%)
Richard Francia 4-3 (57%)
Ryan Hsu 4-3 (57%)
Streak is On!
Wins in a row, in the order the matches were recorded.
Thanh Lim 10 straight (9/25–9/29)
John Wang 2 5 straight (10/1–10/2)
Victorio Monteil 4 straight (10/2)
Vijay Vishwanath 4 straight (10/1)
Gene Chuang 3 straight (9/29)
Domination
Largest average winning margin, at least 4 scored wins.
Victorio Monteil +5.7 avg in 13 wins
Alex Laussu +5.2 avg in 4 wins
Kevin Chang +4.9 avg in 7 wins
Richard Francia +4.8 avg in 4 wins
Thanh Lim +4.4 avg in 24 wins
Giant Killers
Wins when the ratings before that game had their side as the underdogs.
Gene Chuang 8 upset wins in 24 tries
John Wang 2 4 upset wins in 18 tries
Kevin Chang 4 upset wins in 9 tries
Vijay Vishwanath 4 upset wins in 14 tries
Alex Laussu 2 upset wins in 5 tries
Mr. Clutch
Best record in games decided by 2 points (11-9, overtime), at least 3.
Thanh Lim 9-3 (75%)
John Wang 2 7-3 (70%)
Kevin Chang 2-2 (50%)
Gene Chuang 5-7 (42%)
Jerry Shen 2-3 (40%)
Most Improved
SMAD DUPR now against 7 days ago, at least 4 matches since.
Kevin Chang +0.28 (2.47 → 2.75)
Alex Laussu +0.15 (3.07 → 3.22)
Victorio Monteil +0.12 (4.00 → 4.12)
Richard Francia +0.10 (3.83 → 3.93)
Roger Yeh +0.10 (3.07 → 3.17)
I am Ironman!
Most matches played in the last 7 days.
John Wang 2 37 matches
Thanh Lim 37 matches
Gene Chuang 36 matches
Victorio Monteil 20 matches
Vijay Vishwanath 19 matches
Most Promiscuous
Most different partners.
Gene Chuang 11 partners
John Wang 2 10 partners
Thanh Lim 10 partners
Victorio Monteil 8 partners
Alex Laussu 7 partners
Biggest Beefs
Most matches on opposite sides, and who leads.
Gene Chuang vs Thanh Lim 23 games, Thanh Lim 14-9
Gene Chuang vs John Wang 2 18 games, John Wang 2 10-8
John Wang 2 vs Thanh Lim 16 games, Thanh Lim 11-5
Thanh Lim vs Vijay Vishwanath 12 games, Thanh Lim 10-2
John Wang 2 vs Vijay Vishwanath 11 games, John Wang 2 6-5
Dynamic Duo
Best winning record together, at least 3 matches as partners.
Gene Chuang & Kevin Chang 3-0 (100%)
Thanh Lim & Victorio Monteil 4-1 (80%)
John Wang 2 & Thanh Lim 6-3 (67%)
Thanh Lim & Vijay Vishwanath 4-2 (67%)
Gene Chuang & Shyam Bhaskaran 2-1 (67%)
En Fuego!
Best record in the last 14 days, at least 4 matches.
Thanh Lim 24-13 (65%)
Shyam Bhaskaran 5-3 (62%)
Richard Francia 8-5 (62%)
Victorio Monteil 16-11 (59%)
Kevin Chang 7-5 (58%)
Streak is On!
Wins in a row, in the order the matches were recorded.
Thanh Lim 10 straight (9/25–9/29)
John Wang 2 5 straight (10/1–10/2)
Victorio Monteil 4 straight (10/2)
Vijay Vishwanath 4 straight (10/1)
Gene Chuang 3 straight (9/29)
Domination
Largest average winning margin, at least 4 scored wins.
Victorio Monteil +5.4 avg in 16 wins
Alex Laussu +5.2 avg in 4 wins
Richard Francia +5.0 avg in 8 wins
Kevin Chang +4.9 avg in 7 wins
Thanh Lim +4.4 avg in 24 wins
Giant Killers
Wins when the ratings before that game had their side as the underdogs.
Gene Chuang 8 upset wins in 25 tries
John Wang 2 4 upset wins in 20 tries
Kevin Chang 4 upset wins in 9 tries
Vijay Vishwanath 4 upset wins in 14 tries
Ryan Hsu 3 upset wins in 5 tries
Mr. Clutch
Best record in games decided by 2 points (11-9, overtime), at least 3.
Thanh Lim 9-3 (75%)
Ryan Hsu 3-1 (75%)
Richard Francia 2-1 (67%)
John Wang 2 8-5 (62%)
Kevin Chang 2-2 (50%)
Most Improved
SMAD DUPR now against 14 days ago, at least 4 matches since.
Richard Francia +0.30 (3.63 → 3.93)
Kevin Chang +0.28 (2.47 → 2.75)
Victorio Monteil +0.14 (3.98 → 4.12)
Alex Laussu +0.08 (3.14 → 3.22)
Thanh Lim +0.05 (3.39 → 3.44)
I am Ironman!
Most matches played in the last 14 days.
John Wang 2 44 matches
Gene Chuang 43 matches
Thanh Lim 37 matches
Victorio Monteil 27 matches
Vijay Vishwanath 19 matches
Most Promiscuous
Most different partners.
John Wang 2 12 partners
Gene Chuang 11 partners
Thanh Lim 10 partners
Victorio Monteil 9 partners
Richard Francia 8 partners
Biggest Beefs
Most matches on opposite sides, and who leads.
Gene Chuang vs John Wang 2 23 games, John Wang 2 12-11
Gene Chuang vs Thanh Lim 23 games, Thanh Lim 14-9
John Wang 2 vs Thanh Lim 16 games, Thanh Lim 11-5
Thanh Lim vs Vijay Vishwanath 12 games, Thanh Lim 10-2
John Wang 2 vs Victorio Monteil 11 games, Victorio Monteil 8-3
Dynamic Duo
Best winning record together, at least 4 matches as partners.
Gene Chuang & Kevin Chang 5-1 (83%)
Gene Chuang & Shyam Bhaskaran 4-1 (80%)
Alex Laussu & Victorio Monteil 3-1 (75%)
Bill Chui & Shyam Bhaskaran 3-1 (75%)
Gene Chuang & Mark Cheng 3-1 (75%)
En Fuego!
Best record in the last 30 days, at least 6 matches.
Shyam Bhaskaran 15-4 (79%)
Gabe Bloch 13-9 (59%)
Richard Francia 10-7 (59%)
Thanh Lim 34-24 (59%)
Victorio Monteil 24-18 (57%)
Streak is On!
Wins in a row, in the order the matches were recorded.
Thanh Lim 10 straight (9/25–9/29)
Shyam Bhaskaran 8 straight (9/8–9/22)
Victorio Monteil 8 straight (9/8–9/15)
Mark Cheng 6 straight (9/8–9/15)
John Wang 2 5 straight (10/1–10/2)
Domination
Largest average winning margin, at least 6 scored wins.
Victorio Monteil +6.1 avg in 24 wins
Richard Francia +5.4 avg in 10 wins
Roger Yeh +5.3 avg in 7 wins
Shyam Bhaskaran +5.1 avg in 15 wins
Alex Laussu +5.0 avg in 9 wins
Giant Killers
Wins when the ratings before that game had their side as the underdogs.
Gene Chuang 18 upset wins in 43 tries
Vijay Vishwanath 7 upset wins in 25 tries
Kevin Chang 6 upset wins in 12 tries
Ryan Hsu 6 upset wins in 10 tries
Thanh Lim 6 upset wins in 15 tries
Mr. Clutch
Best record in games decided by 2 points (11-9, overtime), at least 4.
Gabe Bloch 4-0 (100%)
Mark Cheng 3-1 (75%)
Thanh Lim 12-6 (67%)
Ryan Hsu 5-3 (62%)
John Wang 2 9-6 (60%)
Most Improved
SMAD DUPR now against 30 days ago, at least 6 matches since.
Alex Laussu +0.59 (2.63 → 3.22)
Mark Cheng +0.49 (2.70 → 3.19)
Richard Francia +0.41 (3.52 → 3.93)
Kevin Chang +0.27 (2.48 → 2.75)
Roger Yeh +0.18 (2.99 → 3.17)
I am Ironman!
Most matches played in the last 30 days.
Gene Chuang 78 matches
Thanh Lim 58 matches
John Wang 2 56 matches
Vijay Vishwanath 44 matches
Victorio Monteil 42 matches
Most Promiscuous
Most different partners.
Gene Chuang 14 partners
Thanh Lim 13 partners
Victorio Monteil 13 partners
John Wang 2 12 partners
Ryan Hsu 11 partners
Biggest Beefs
Most matches on opposite sides, and who leads.
Gene Chuang vs Thanh Lim 32 games, Thanh Lim 19-13
Gene Chuang vs Vijay Vishwanath 28 games, Gene Chuang 17-11
Gene Chuang vs John Wang 2 26 games, Gene Chuang 14-12
John Wang 2 vs Thanh Lim 21 games, Thanh Lim 14-7
Thanh Lim vs Vijay Vishwanath 20 games, Thanh Lim 14-6
Dynamic Duo
Best winning record together, at least 4 matches as partners.
Gene Chuang & Kevin Chang 5-1 (83%)
Gene Chuang & Shyam Bhaskaran 4-1 (80%)
Ryan Hsu & Victorio Monteil 4-1 (80%)
Alex Laussu & Victorio Monteil 7-2 (78%)
Bill Chui & Shyam Bhaskaran 3-1 (75%)
En Fuego!
Best record, at least 10 matches.
Shyam Bhaskaran 19-6 (76%)
Victorio Monteil 35-22 (61%)
Thanh Lim 39-29 (57%)
Mark Cheng 10-8 (56%)
Richard Francia 11-9 (55%)
Streak is On!
Wins in a row, in the order the matches were recorded.
Thanh Lim 10 straight (9/25–9/29)
Shyam Bhaskaran 8 straight (9/8–9/22)
Victorio Monteil 8 straight (9/8–9/15)
John Wang 2 7 straight (8/28)
Gabe Bloch 6 straight (8/28–9/4)
Domination
Largest average winning margin, at least 6 scored wins.
Victorio Monteil +6.1 avg in 35 wins
Shyam Bhaskaran +5.6 avg in 19 wins
Roger Yeh +5.3 avg in 13 wins
Richard Francia +5.3 avg in 11 wins
Ryan Hsu +5.2 avg in 20 wins
Giant Killers
Wins when the ratings before that game had their side as the underdogs.
Gene Chuang 19 upset wins in 46 tries
Ryan Hsu 7 upset wins in 13 tries
Vijay Vishwanath 7 upset wins in 25 tries
Kevin Chang 6 upset wins in 12 tries
Thanh Lim 6 upset wins in 15 tries
Mr. Clutch
Best record in games decided by 2 points (11-9, overtime), at least 4.
Gabe Bloch 4-1 (80%)
Mark Cheng 3-1 (75%)
Thanh Lim 12-6 (67%)
John Wang 2 10-7 (59%)
Gene Chuang 14-14 (50%)
Most Improved
SMAD DUPR now against their first rating, at least 10 matches.
Alex Laussu +0.59 (2.63 → 3.22)
Mark Cheng +0.49 (2.70 → 3.19)
Richard Francia +0.41 (3.52 → 3.93)
Roger Yeh +0.41 (2.76 → 3.17)
Kevin Chang +0.27 (2.48 → 2.75)
I am Ironman!
Most matches played.
Gene Chuang 101 matches
John Wang 2 72 matches
Thanh Lim 68 matches
Victorio Monteil 57 matches
Vijay Vishwanath 50 matches
Most Promiscuous
Most different partners.
Gene Chuang 15 partners
Thanh Lim 15 partners
John Wang 2 14 partners
Victorio Monteil 13 partners
Ryan Hsu 12 partners
Biggest Beefs
Most matches on opposite sides, and who leads.
Gene Chuang vs John Wang 2 34 games, John Wang 2 18-16
Gene Chuang vs Thanh Lim 33 games, Thanh Lim 20-13
Gene Chuang vs Vijay Vishwanath 31 games, Gene Chuang 19-12
John Wang 2 vs Thanh Lim 24 games, Thanh Lim 15-9
Thanh Lim vs Vijay Vishwanath 20 games, Thanh Lim 14-6
Confidence in a gap is the effective resistance between two players: many paths, a confident gap; one thin path through a busy player, a coin flip. Dashed lines are partners who never oppose: the fit knows their sum, not their gap, until they play on opposite sides.
Everyone starts at their own sheet DUPR, ± 0.5 (3.25, the group's average, for anyone without one), and results move them from there (since 10/2/2026; 9/26 to 10/1 everyone started at 3.25). In the 10/2/2026 backtest it picked the next night's winners 67% of the time, against 55%.
Recent matches count more: a match 14 days older than the latest game counts half, 28 days a quarter. The window is learned at every refit: the one that best predicted each past game from the games before it.
k, currently 3.00, is measured against the sheet DUPRs at every refit, so a 1.0 gap means what it means in DUPR.
All matches at once: one linear system (Bayesian ridge, a Massey rating with a prior), solved exactly. Who served and DUPR's own match data are not used.
± is how sure the fit is; more matches against more people shrink it.
Caveats
Uncertainty runs ±0.20 to ±0.47. Players closer than that are a coin flip.
The graph runs through Gene Chuang. Gene is in 101 of the 163 matches, so most comparisons go through Gene. More matches between everyone else help most.
Under 10 matches is provisional (*): 4 players are there now.
Margins are noisy. k is about 3.0 points of margin per 1.0 of team gap, so a 3.5 pair beats a 3.0 pair by roughly 3. k is measured at every refit.
Log every match, with the score. An unlogged match did not happen.
Win chances are modest on purpose. A match line's +3/69% is the spread and the left side's chance, from how far real margins land from the spread (about 6 points): a 70% favorite still loses 3 times in 10. Every post-game report grades the night's spreads against the scores (🎯 Spread check).
Your sheet DUPR is your starting point. With few matches it decides most of your rating; keep it current.
This is not DUPR. Same units, our own data, reported nowhere.
Fitted 10/3/2026 PT by /pb post game; redrawn from the SMAD DUPR Log after every refit. Data exported 2026-10-03 21:10:04 PDT.